In the Philadelphia area (where my office is), and now also in Dallas, Terrell Owens is persona non grata to say the least. Among his many antics, he's infamous for coining the phrase, "getcha popcorn ready", referring to the excitement he was surely going to generate on the field…and we, his adoring fans, certainly didn't want to miss it!
Many of my colleagues, partners and competitors are getting their popcorn ready these days. Like autumn, the hint of an economic recovery is in the air. Ben Bernanke indicated that he expects a slow recovery, but all the same, a recovery is on the way. Should we believe him?
What have we got to lose by being cautiously optimistic?
A wise person said recently that things will never return to the old normal. The new normal will mean even leaner organizations, more careful spending and certainly more regulation and transparency. Politics aside, most would agree that we needed most of this stuff anyway.
But economic cycles come and go. This one is (was?) very deep and will have far reaching consequences. What's not different though, is the fact that many organizations laid off too many people and soon begin to scramble to hire enough people back to capitalize on new business opportunities that will accompany the recovery of 2010. It happens every time.
Why do they keep making the same mistake over and over?
Laying people off is a very dramatic signal to shareholders and analysts. When a company does a reduction in force, it's saying that it's dead serious about cutting costs and/or that things are in fact so dire that it has no other choice. But which is it? Are there unnecessary layoffs? To be sure there are. We've seen it AGAIN.
Just Watch
Get your popcorn ready for a slow and steady wave of hiring. Many companies will return to pre-recession headcounts. Did this exercise save them money in the end? Probably not. Did it win them loyalty in their job markets and communities? Nope. Did it make the surviving employees buckle down? That's arguable, but what is not arguable is the fact that layoffs are a major distraction.
So what we have now is pent-up turnover. Many people are just waiting for the job market to improve to get the heck out of where they are. A wise person (different wise person) also said that companies remember what you do for them in the bad times more than they remember what you do in the good times. I think that this may be true to a certain extent.
Dramatic layoffs coupled with unrealistic expectations and a lack of clear and honest communication is a recipe for delayed turnover. We don't have short term memories when it comes to life-altering events like job loss.
What should have happened? There should be a continual push to drive efficiency. Keep people fully utilized and cross-trained so that when times get tough they can be deployed almost anywhere to help keep the bottom line secure. Don't over-hire.
Allowing legions of people to sit on payroll adding little value, and then cutting a deep swath of jobs when times get tough is not sustainable over the long term. History shows that this practice, though popular, actually costs more in the long run.
We often hear that layoffs are a desperate measure of last resort. When profits are down, training and leadership development is often cut as an "unnecessary expense".
The reason this is a huge mistake is that when times get tougher, companies don't have people ready to step up and save the day. So they punt, lay people off, and everyone pays dearly. To watch them re-hire and train new people, getting back to pre-crunch headcount numbers, is common.
So, I say, 'get your popcorn ready'. The next wave is coming and unfortunately, due to the dumbfounding practices of cutting too deeply, the next down cycle is surely not too far behind. The best advice is to keep your skills sharp, your 401(k) funded and mobile, and your networks alive. We're all going to need them again and again.